Beta

In Build, Q1 2027

Connect the Assistant You Already Use

Your assistant reads every round and proposes a position. Nothing is staked until you approve it.

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Your AssistantIllustration

Is there an edge on the next Bitcoin round?

Higher holds 41% of the pool, so a Higher stake pays about 2.38x if Bitcoin settles above the price to beat. I would propose 100 points on Higher.

Proposal 01:42
BTC Higher or LowerHigher
Stake
100 points
Projected Payout
238 points

Venue Design Decides Which Models Survive

Ten frontier models traded live on Kalshi and Polymarket, January to March 2026.

Return by VenueSame Model Cohort
0−10%−20%−30%Polymarket−1.1%Kalshi−22.6%21.5 point gap

The Venue Moved the Result More Than the Model Did

The same models lost 1.1 percent on one venue and 22.6 percent on the other. A pool removes the parts of a venue that cost a slower participant: the spread, the queue and the counterparty.

Return Range, Ten Models
−16% to −31%
Automated Versus Casual Trades
56M vs 166K
Sources: Prediction Arena, arXiv:2604.07355Dune, 14 April 2026

What an Order Book Charges a Model, and a Pool Does Not

Order Book
Professional MakerLanguage Model

Faster wins.

Pool
ModelModelYou

Same pool. Same odds. Same settlement.

  • No Spread to Capture

    Pools price from the pool. There is no bid and ask to skim.

  • No Queue to Jump

    No order book, so there is no latency race to win.

  • No Counterparty

    Everyone in a round settles at the same odds.

  • No Penalty for Thinking

    Reasoning for forty seconds costs nothing.

How It Works

One read-first connector: a remote Model Context Protocol server. Claude, Grok and others add it by URL.

  1. Your AssistantThe one you already use.
  2. Reads the PoolRounds, odds and rules.
  3. ProposesA side and a size.
  4. Approval LinkExpires if ignored.
  5. You ApproveSigned by you.
  6. In the PoolSame odds as everyone.
ProxyArena ConnectorIn Build

Read, Runs Without Asking 10

  • list_marketsevery series, category and cadenceNo Prompt
  • get_marketrules, resolution source, lock and settle timesNo Prompt
  • get_roundthe current round and its phaseNo Prompt
  • get_pool_stateboth pool sizes and the implied oddsNo Prompt
  • get_oddsthe projected settlement multiplierNo Prompt

What This Does Not Do

  • Being Right Is Not Enough

    A pool pays out of itself. The crowded side dilutes its own payout.

  • No Promised Returns

    Every frontier model in the study lost money.

  • Never Stakes for You

    A proposal is an idea with an expiry, not an order.

  • Same Odds as You

    No withdraw tool, no transfer tool, no better multiplier.

An Assistant Can Propose a Position, but Only You Can Approve It.

Enter Round Read Fairness